WTI Price Forecast: Bears have the upper hand below $82.10-$82.15 confluence hurdle

WTI – the benchmark US Crude Oil price – witnessed selling pressure after its overnight rebound from a two-week low in the $79.30-$79.25 range. The commodity traded just above $81.00 on Thursday, marking a less than 0.50% daily gain. Optimism surrounding a potential US-Iran peace deal, along with the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, temporarily eased the bearish sentiment.

However, Iran’s Deputy Foreign Minister cautioned that the strategic waterway may not fully reopen until the US adheres to the interim peace deal conditions. This geopolitical risk premium continues to drive the bullish outlook. The overnight bounce failed to gain traction above the $82.10-$82.15 confluence, which includes the 100-period Exponential Moving Average and the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level of the recovery from the monthly low.

Technical indicators, such as the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) and Relative Strength Index (RSI), suggest a lack of strong momentum, indicating that rallies may remain restricted near the clustered resistance level. Downside support is anchored by the 50.0% retracement at $80.47 and the 61.8% level at $78.83, which could be breached if selling pressure intensifies.

Bulls must wait for sustained strength above $82.10-$82.15 before entering into fresh positions and anticipating further gains. The next significant hurdle is the 23.6% retracement at $84.13, followed by the more fundamental support level near $87.40.