Ukraine reveals latest intelligence on Russia’s mobilization plans

Ukraine's President's Office revealed intelligence on Russia's mobilization plans on August 27. According to the office, Russia intends to mobilize 600,000 recruits in 2026-27. This year, 300,000 people will be mobilized, followed by another 300,000 in the next year. The move is seen as a response to Russia's loss of initiative in the war, increasing personnel losses on the front, and slow contract recruitment across regions.

Since the invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, Russia has only once resorted to forced mobilization, in the fall of 2022. This resulted in hundreds of thousands of Russians leaving the country and long queues at border crossings, particularly with Georgia. Russia has avoided larger-scale mobilization, perceiving it as a threat to its image as a symbol of strength and stability.

Internal Russian documents indicate that the need for mobilization is driven, in part, by a significant rise in dissatisfaction with the war, up to 69% in some regions. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky warned that Russia plans to mobilize approximately 300,000 individuals after the State Duma elections in September. Zelensky emphasized that these troops would not enter major Ukrainian cities to avoid societal backlash.

The mobilized forces would either bolster Moscow's main offensive effort on the Donetsk Oblast or create new threats in other areas, including Ukraine's northern border.