The US Dollar Index sits still through two hawkish speeches

The US Dollar Index remained stagnant on Thursday, unchanged from the session, hovering just above 99.00 with minimal fluctuations. This index value falls roughly 2.6% below its June high of nearly 102.00 and below both the 50-day and 200-day exponential moving averages. Three policymakers released hawkish statements in Jackson Hole before the New York market opened, but none caused a noticeable shift in the index.

This performance marked the most hawkish decision of this chairmanship, with a 9-3 vote to maintain rates, followed by the first dissent of the term from regional presidents. The index surged nearly 1.7 points the following day, the largest daily move of the summer, but has not recovered since. The Treasury increased its buyback operations ceiling, causing a decline in longer-term yields and a weakening of the Dollar.

Foreign holdings of Treasuries decreased significantly, largely due to China selling off bonds, which further pushed the Dollar down. Despite the Fed's tightening policy, the bond market and fiscal authority have partially offset these effects. The upcoming Fed Chair's Jackson Hole keynote on Friday, without a Q&A session, and the release of key economic indicators may provide further clues on the potential direction of the currency.

The resistance levels are at 99.75 to 100.00, while support is found at 99.00 and above 98.50. The overall bias leans bearish, as the currency's performance is driven more by external factors like foreign holdings and bond yields rather than the Fed's policy decisions.