The numbers behind Carlton's transition from AFLW darling to contender

Last year, Carlton was the darling of the AFLW, making it to the finals for the first time since 2020 and challenging Brisbane on home ground. However, there's fear that a quick decline might follow such rapid advancement due to factors like short seasons, weighted fixtures, and injury-prone rosters. Despite this, the Blues have bucked the trend and excelled in the 2026 season by altering their game style further.

They have adapted their style from last year, incorporating new elements that reflect future trends in the game. While they moved the ball by foot 61.3% of the time in 2025, this dropped to 54.4% in 2026. In contrast, their handball metres gained increased from 178 to 335 across the opening two rounds of the season, a trend observed across the AFLW.

As a result, Carlton's average handballs per game rose from 100.8 last year to 134.0 this year, and their reliability in hitting targets has improved significantly. A key contributor to this transformation is Carlton's midfield trio of Mimi Hill, Abbie McKay, and Claudia Whitfort, whose speed and on-the-run handballing have helped them forward the ball consistently.

The Blues' improved rebounding from defensive 50s and capacity to turn opposition entries into scoring opportunities have also grown, leading to a +51 point differential from turnovers in the opening fortnight. They've scored more points from defensive 50 score launches than any other side (33 points), with their rebound rate increasing year on year.

Defensive players like Harriet Cordner, Ciara Fitzgerald, Maddy Hendrie, and the new addition Siofra O Connell have played crucial roles. They've also seen Dayna Finn, an All-Australian and the Blues' best and fairest winner, contribute significantly to the defensive transition. Amelia Velardo, who has become a vital part of the defense, locks down a mid-sized defensive role.

The biggest change this year is how the Blues utilize the ball once inside the 50. While last year focused on marking targets near the goal, this year the focus has shifted to using space and ground-level forwards for damage. Tara Bohanna, Sophie McKay, and Breann Harrington were primary targets last year, but Harrington is on maternity leave, and Bohanna's starting position is uncertain.

Instead, the Blues are employing speed and ground-level forwards to score. The inclusion of Nell Morris-Dalton as the key forward target and a supporting cast of smaller forwards has made the Blues more difficult to defend against. However, this strategy hinges on the faster movement up the ground to isolate goal-side players. While Carlton's marking numbers have increased, contested marks and marks inside 50 have both dropped.

Although this is based on only two matches, the team's strategy of expanding its game style while maintaining a solid defensive base may help it avoid the pitfalls of rapid advancement.