‘엘니뇨’는 단지 자연 현상?…“기후변화가 엘니뇨 빈도·강도 키웠다”

As the current "El Niño" is rapidly escalating into an unprecedented "super" El Niño, studies have revealed that climate change is exacerbating this natural phenomenon. The increase in Earth's temperature due to human activities, specifically greenhouse gas emissions from industrialization, is pushing the planet's climate system beyond its normal limits.

Researchers from the University of Michigan, led by Dr. Julia Cole, analyzed Pacific Ocean sea temperatures over the past 1,000 years and found that the variability of "El Niño Southern Oscillation" (ENSO) has been amplified by anthropogenic climate change. ENSO is a large-scale weather pattern occurring in the equatorial Pacific Ocean, where ocean and atmospheric interactions lead to variations in sea surface temperatures, resulting in extreme weather events such as droughts and floods.

Though ENSO has existed for at least thousands of years, some scientists argue that the rise in Earth's temperature due to human-induced climate change is intensifying it further. ENSO variability, which appeared to be relatively low and consistent for most of the past 1,000 years, significantly increased during the 20th century, and especially in the present "modern" era, showing a 36.5% increase compared to pre-industrial times and a 16.2% increase compared to the 20th century.

This heightened variability suggests that El Niño events are becoming more frequent and intense due to human-caused climate change. The researchers warn that the extreme weather conditions caused by these intensified El Niño events could lead to massive economic losses, ecosystem destruction, and human suffering worldwide. While the current study does not directly connect El Niño variability to greenhouse gas emissions, the strong correlation between observed El Niño intensification and climate model simulations driven by rising greenhouse gas concentrations strongly suggests that climate change is playing a significant role in this phenomenon.

Given the high probability of even more powerful El Niño events in the future, it is crucial to pay close attention to their potential impacts on temperature, precipitation, and extreme weather patterns in the Korean Peninsula.