Storm Dolly Spaghetti Models Show Possible Path As Threat Rises
Forecasters are watching an area of disturbance in the Atlantic that could strengthen into Tropical Storm Dolly.
Invest 96L, an Atlantic disturbance, has the potential to develop into the next named storm of the 2026 hurricane season, according to meteorologists. The National Hurricane Center (NHC) observed that showers and thunderstorms associated with a low-pressure system southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands have become better organized.
If conditions persist, advisories may be issued for a short-lived tropical depression or storm later today. However, environmental conditions are expected to become less favorable for storm development on Friday.
Should the system generate a tropical storm, the next name on the predetermined list for the Atlantic season is Dolly. The NHC attributed a 70% chance of tropical cyclone formation over the next 48 hours and 7 days to Invest 96L, up from 60% on Wednesday. Throughout 2026, only three named storms have formed in the Atlantic: Tropical Storms Arthur, Bertha, and Cristobal.
As of Thursday morning, meteorologists anticipate this year's Atlantic hurricane season to be less active than usual due to El Niño, a naturally occurring climate pattern that typically suppresses hurricane formation in the Atlantic. Alex DaSilva, AccuWeather's lead hurricane expert, explained that the current atmospheric stability around the Main Development Region in the Atlantic Ocean has hindered tropical storm growth throughout the season.
He added that this wave faces similar challenges. "Atmospheric stability is not caused by El Niño," DaSilva stated in an email to Newsweek. "The atmosphere is simply more stable than usual."
According to AccuWeather, there is a high probability that the system will develop into a tropical system this week, east of the Lesser Antilles. If development does not occur, the wave is anticipated to encounter dry air and wind shear before reaching a more conducive environment for strengthening near the Bahamas. DaSilva emphasized that "the key is that there has to be something to develop."
If the wave is torn apart by shear near the Lesser Antilles, it may never develop. However, if the storm remains intact for an extended period, the conditions around the Bahamas could allow it to organize. Individuals residing along the U.S. east coast should remain vigilant. The National Hurricane Center (NHC) announced that it plans to continue using "Dolly" as the next Atlantic storm name, with no alterations to the list.
The name was selected in the early 1990s and has been part of a rotating list since 1996. The names are maintained through an international World Meteorological Organization committee and recycled every six years. Names are only changed if a storm proves to be excessively destructive or deadly, rendering reusing its name inappropriate.
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