Saskatchewan fiscal update projects $825M deficit, cites health, agriculture costs

Saskatchewan's fiscal update reveals a projected $825.2 million deficit for the 2026-27 fiscal year, according to the province's budget released Thursday. The deficit remains nearly unchanged from the initial estimate of $819.4 million made in March. Both revenue and expenses rose compared to the previous year, with the fiscal year concluding in March 2027.

Saskatchewan expected the average West Texas Intermediate oil price to be US$59.75 per barrel, but the actual average is now estimated at US$75 per barrel. This price increase translates to an additional $17 million for the provincial treasury, as each dollar rise in the barrel price equates to around $17 million. The budget also revised the well-head oil price from a budgeted $62.92 to $79.35.

An increase in oil prices is due, in part, to the conflict between the United States, Israel, and Iran, which has led to global oil prices surging. The conflict has forced one-fifth of the world's oil tanker shipments to anchor in the Strait of Hormuz, disrupting oil supply. The conflict-driven revenue accounted for a $331 million increase in expected revenue for the fiscal year.

However, health-care costs largely offset the revenue rise, with demands, inflation, and salaries expected to add $200 million to expenses. Overall, expenses jumped to $337 million more than expected. The Saskatchewan government plans to keep health care, education, and infrastructure funded without making drastic cuts.