Palace intrigue in Uganda as succession battle heats up

Uganda's highly-strung army chief, Muhoozi Kainerugaba, has once again declared his intention to run for president and take over from his aging father, President Yoweri Museveni. The current 81-year-old leader has been stepping back in recent months, sparking curiosity about who will succeed him.

Museveni's son, Kainerugaba, has made his ambitions clear, announcing - then retracting - his bid for the top job multiple times. He has been increasingly vocal in recent times, ordering crackdowns on rivals, opposition figures and the media. The 52-year-old army chief has even boasted of kidnapping and torturing opponents, and is known for his provocative use of the social media platform X.

However, Kainerugaba faces stiff competition from within the powerful first family. His brother-in-law, Odrek Rwabwogo, 56, has been quietly amassing support for years within the bureaucracy and presents himself as a reformer. The two men are married to each other's sister, Patience.

Kainerugaba is not taking the challenge lightly. He has called Rwabwogo's economic think tank "an illegal organisation" and threatened to "start arresting its members immediately" if they questioned the authority of security officers. He boasted recently that he had kidnapped Rwabwogo's personal aide on X, a post since deleted.

Rwabwogo has criticized Kainerugaba's authoritarian actions. He argues that political reform is crucial to boosting Uganda's growth, citing the need for rule of law, restraint, and honest communication. However, Kainerugaba's allies dismiss Rwabwogo's reformist claims, describing him as a "political schemer" trying to gain power through shortcuts.

The succession battle is largely an internal matter due to the weakening of political institutions and the suppression of dissent. Many assume that Museveni, a former guerrilla leader, would support his son. UNAIDS chief Winnie Byanyima, whose husband is Besigye, Uganda's opposition leader now facing treason charges, described Uganda as "a military state" under Museveni's rule.