Missile independence: Can Ukraine produce its own ballistic weapons and air defense interceptors at scale?

Ukraine faces a pressing need to develop its own ballistic missiles and air defense systems in order to counter the increased use of Russian ballistic missiles against Ukrainian cities and infrastructure. While Western allies have provided some Patriot air defense systems, the supply of interceptors is limited and the global shortage of PAC-3 missiles has worsened due to the war in the Middle East.

Ukrainian commanders often have to prioritize which cities and facilities to protect, as many ballistic missiles have successfully evaded interception.

Producing Ukraine's own ballistic missiles would not only provide a counter to Russian missile attacks but also allow Ukraine to independently determine targets and intensities of strikes, without needing approval from its allies. The timeline for intercepting a ballistic missile is critical, as Russian ballistic missiles can reach the Ukrainian capital in just two to five minutes. Heavier warheads on these missiles also make them suitable for attacking hardened or important targets that smaller drones may fail to destroy.

Ukraine's proposed ballistic missile programs, such as the FP-7, FP-7.x, FP-9, and Sapsan, aim to cover various ranges for both offensive and defensive purposes. The FP-7 is designed to strike targets up to 200 kilometers away and can also be used as an interceptor within the joint European missile defense system Freya. With mass production, reliable supplies, domestic production of solid rocket fuel, secure facilities, mobile launchers, and stable funding, Ukraine could potentially reduce its dependence on Western-supplied ATACMS and turn its own ballistic missiles into a regularly used weapon.