Middle East conflict, oil prices push Alberta’s finances back in the black

Alberta's finances are returning to a surplus after soaring global energy prices were triggered by the conflict in the Middle East. Finance Minister Jason Nixon welcomed the $2-billion surplus, projecting it will offset the $9.4-billion deficit originally forecast for the 2026-27 fiscal year. However, Nixon cautioned that the province will not treat the surplus as a blank cheque for future spending.

The province had expected West Texas Intermediate oil to average $60.50 a barrel in 2026, but the war between Iran and the U.S. sent global oil prices surging to an average of $88 per barrel this year. This has generated an estimated $680 million for Alberta's treasury for every $1 increase in average oil prices. In response, the province announced $100 rebates for some 3.4 million eligible adults, though opposition leader Naheed Nenshi criticized the measure as too intrusive.

Nixon anticipates the government is on track for a sixth consecutive surplus year, but opposition NDP Leader Nenshi maintains that Albertans still face an affordability crisis.