Mexican Peso: Carry-driven strength extends against US Dollar – Rabobank

Rabobank analysts Christian Lawrence and Molly Schwartz report that the Mexican peso has experienced a strength boost, pushing the USD/MXN exchange rate below 17 for the first time since May 2024. This development has led to a forecast revision, with analysts expecting the pair to reach 16.5 in the coming weeks. The strong carry demand and reduced volatility are cited as key factors supporting the Mexican peso.

The analysts project a mild correction in the upcoming year, with the exchange rate remaining within the recent ranges and not falling below 16.25. The break of the 17-level has opened up potential for a move to 16.5, with thin support at 16.45/49 followed by strong support at 16.25. The analysts have also noted that a spike in volatility could quickly push the pair back into the mid-17s, with a move above 18 being feasible in short order.

They have revised their forecast for USD/MXN lower, taking into account the confirmed break below the critical support at the 17 handle and the structural shift in FX volatility within the current regime.