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Islandia is reigniting the debate around EU membership amid threats from US President Donald Trump to annex Greenland. Hjalti Jón Pálsson, a 49-year-old father of four, is certain that joining the EU would not enhance Iceland's security or protect it from Trump. For over 80 years, Iceland has enjoyed independence, and while many appreciate their autonomy, the country's leader, Guðrún Hafsteinsdóttir, believes they must now consider a different path that takes into account the common good.

The last Icelandic bid for EU membership came in the wake of the 2008 banking crisis but was abandoned in 2013 after a government change and disagreements with Brussels over fishing rights. This time, the controversy stems from the US. The Icelandic government called for a referendum in March following Trump's threats against Greenland and his repeated comparisons to the "Arctic island."

At the height of the controversy, US Ambassador Billy Long made a joke suggesting Iceland should become the 52nd state of the US, with him as governor. He quickly apologized. Gunnarsdóttir, Iceland's Minister of Foreign Affairs, acknowledged that it would be "naive and irresponsible" not to consider this historic moment. Despite being a NATO member without a permanent army and under a defense agreement with the US dating back to the Cold War, many Icelanders remain skeptical about the benefits of EU membership.

A recent local poll shows that a small majority of Icelanders support restarting the accession negotiations. Critics argue that joining the EU would mean giving up the Icelandic crown and jeopardizing control over the country's valuable fishing sector. The leader of the main opposition party, the Independence Party, Guðrún Hafsteinsdóttir, told the Financial Times that Icelanders have "fought many battles against nature" and are confident they can "survive everything on our own."

Pálsson, who lives in Grindavík, a city hit by nine volcanic eruptions since 2023, is unconcerned about earthquakes. He believes those who dislike the earthquakes should not stay in the area. However, the vote also centers on money. Proponents of restarting negotiations argue that many households are already paying the price for staying outside the eurozone: a volatile krona, high inflation, and high borrowing costs.

According to Oxford Economics, mortgage rates in Iceland hover around 9%, about 5 percentage points more than in the eurozone.

For young people, the main concern is mortgage interest rates. They work tirelessly but may never afford a home. If Iceland joins the eurozone, things could improve, says Harne, a 35-year-old film director and professor living in Reykjavik. However, any approach to the EU would force Iceland to return to its most sensitive red line: fishing rights.

The European Commission has expressed willingness to negotiate a specific fisheries agreement due to Iceland's heavy reliance on this sector, though a total exemption seems unlikely. Icelandic fishery quota systems have concentrated rights among large companies, leaving smaller communities struggling, according to Kjartan Sveinsson, a lifelong fisherman. While Iceland benefits economically from the quota system, socially, it has been a disaster.