Iran endures 6 months of US strikes as Trump’s war goals hit ‘dangerous impasse’

The Iran war has reached a stalemate after six months of US and Israeli attacks, killing Iran's supreme leader and seriously wounding his son and successor. Iran remains in power and believes it has time on its side. US President Donald Trump threatened to impose further sanctions, but Tehran is counting on him not taking the final step of aggressively enforcing secondary sanctions on countries sustaining Iran's economy, particularly China and India.

Washington's latest measures target Iran's oil revenues, banks, and trading partners, while a US-led naval blockade restricts Tehran's oil exports and access to hard currency. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent stated that the US will cut off the financial lifelines sustaining Iran's economy. Former US diplomat Aaron David Miller described the administration's efforts as desperate, calling it Desperation Day rather than D-Day.

Michael Knights, head of research at Horizon Engage, believes the blockade may prove more consequential than the sanctions themselves, as Iran's immediate challenge is no longer surviving economic pressure but breaking free from it. Iran has adapted to sanctions and endured previous "maximum pressure" campaigns without changing its behavior.

Economic pressure may increase Iran's incentive to pressure Gulf states, particularly Saudi Arabia, to push Washington towards a diplomatic off-ramp. Iran could adopt a model similar to its Houthi allies in the Red Sea, using periodic attacks, intermittent negotiations, and a prolonged campaign of disruption short of all-out war.

Washington maintains the balance of power is in its favor, claiming the Iranian economy is in free fall and the regime's military has been decimated. However, Iran dismisses the US strategy as a failed playbook, with some analysts arguing that sanctions rarely force governments to abandon goals they view as existential for their survival.