Indian Rupee opens flat as stronger US Dollar offsets lower crude prices

On Thursday, the Indian Rupee (INR) opened at a flat rate against the US Dollar (USD), near the ten-day low of 95.40. Despite lower oil prices, which typically benefit currencies, the US Dollar strengthened due to a stable U.S. Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) Price Index report for July. The US Dollar Index (DXY) remained near 99.15.

Federal Reserve's core PCE inflation and headline PCE Price Index both grew at an expected pace of 3.3% and 3.7% YoY, respectively. However, the Federal Reserve's interest rate expectations for the September meeting have remained unchanged. Analysts view Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh's Jackson Hole Symposium remarks as the most crucial event of the week, although they emphasize that the event is seen as a credibility event rather than a rate-signalling one.

Meanwhile, the Iranian government announced a revenue-sharing agreement with Oman over the Strait of Hormuz, a critical energy supply route. This news weighed on oil prices, benefiting currencies like India's. The MCX Crude Oil contract for September is down 0.75%, trading at around Rs. 7,834. The USD/INR pair is currently trading at 95.42, with a bearish near-term outlook.

Technical analysis suggests resistance at the 20-period EMA at 95.55 and support at the rising trendline break price at 95.40, with a deeper support level at 94.16.