Google Engineer Accused of Polymarket Insider Trading Says He Was Just ‘Gambling’

Google engineer Mario Spagnuolo is currently under investigation for allegedly committing commodities fraud, wire fraud, and money laundering. He used the pseudonym "AlphaRaccoon" to make a series of wagers on Polymarket, the online prediction market platform, which reportedly resulted in profits exceeding $1.2 million. According to prosecutors, Spagnuolo accurately wagered that the singer D4vd, known for his alleged involvement in a violent crime, would be Google's most-searched individual of the year in 2025.

D4vd was later charged with murder but pleaded not guilty. Spagnuolo's defense claims that classifying prediction markets as commodities would lead to absurd legal consequences, as it could potentially encompass a wide range of activities, from charity raffles to local Ping-Pong matches. Furthermore, his legal team argues that the U.S. government lacks jurisdiction over him due to his non-US citizenship and his involvement in a non-US platform.

The extraterritorial argument, according to legal expert Todd Phillips, could raise questions about whether the US has the right to regulate prediction markets worldwide. Spagnuolo was living in Zurich, Switzerland, at the time of the alleged trades. His legal team also contends that the internal information he allegedly used for his bets had no commercial value to Google.

The Commodity Futures Trading Commission, the federal agency responsible for regulating prediction markets, and Spagnuolo's legal representatives have not commented on the allegations. The Commodity Futures Trading Commission has the authority to pursue extraterritorial jurisdiction in certain circumstances.