Galápagos corals show El Niño events are more extreme now than in past 1,000 years – here’s how my team made the discovery
Scientists went to the heart of the El Niño pattern to learn from living and fossil corals. The results show El Niño’s intensifying coincides with global warming.
In the equatorial Pacific Ocean, the El Niño phenomenon has been intensifying in recent decades, according to research conducted on the Galápagos Islands. Scientists extracted coral samples from the region to uncover a historical record of El Niño events stretching back a millennium. The study, published in the journal Science, reveals that El Niño events have become increasingly severe, with temperatures rising above any levels seen in the past 1,000 years. This intensification aligns with global warming due to human activities.
One particularly extreme El Niño event occurred in 1982, causing a marine heat wave that devastated the Galápagos Islands' marine ecosystem. Over 95% of the corals perished during this heat wave, illustrating the catastrophic impact on marine life and the local communities that depend on it. The subsequent El Niño in 1997-98 resulted in 23,000 deaths from climate-related disasters and widespread flooding and drought across various regions, causing economic losses estimated at US$4 trillion.
The researchers discovered that the distinctive coral record preserved year-round calcium carbonate layers reveals the history of El Niño and its counterpart, La Niña, spanning centuries. By analyzing the oxygen and strontium-to-calcium ratios within the coral skeletons, they determined that the past 40 years have witnessed stronger El Niño events than any period in the last millennium. These findings suggest that the 1982-83 and 1997-98 El Niños may foreshadow more intense events as the planet continues to warm.
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