Explainer-How France’s 2027 budget battle could play out

The budget negotiations for France in 2027 are proving to be particularly challenging for Prime Minister Sebastien Lecornu's minority government. Facing opposition parties, Lecornu must set a target for the country's 2027 deficit, submit a budget bill to parliament by October 6, and potentially navigate weeks of political drama before the April-May presidential election.

The situation is further complicated by France's already vulnerable position on its current deficit target, which is at risk due to weak growth and emergency spending on heatwaves. In the past, minority governments have relied on Article 49.3 of the constitution to force through budgets without a vote, but opposition parties are no longer willing to compromise.

A failure to pass a budget by year-end, without invoking 49.3, could lead to a short emergency law that rolls over the 2026 budget until a new one can be passed after the election.

However, the new president is expected to dissolve parliament and call fresh elections, delaying the 2027 budget until the second half of the year. If the government survives past mid-December without a budget law, it could resort to bypassing parliament entirely by passing a budget by ordinance, a tactic never before attempted in the Fifth Republic. This option, however, is likely to trigger a no-confidence vote, leaving Lecornu's cabinet in a caretaker role until a new government can be formed.