El Niño is getting stronger — and climate change may be why

A new study reveals that El Ninos, natural climatic occurrences that cause spikes in global temperatures, are becoming more intense due to human-induced climate change. El Ninos have grown 36% stronger since the industrial era began in the mid-1800s, and the trend is accelerating by 16% over the past 40 years, according to research published in the journal Science.

The study, led by paleoclimate scientist Julia Cole from the University of Michigan, suggests the upcoming strong El Nino forecast is likely to be the most powerful on record. El Ninos, which are temporary warming of equatorial Pacific areas, have global impacts, including extreme weather events like heatwaves, floods, and droughts.

Lead author Julia Cole explained that strong El Ninos have more significant effects on climate hazards than weaker ones. Marine scientist Boris Worm, who did not participate in the study, likened human emissions to a "stick" poking the climate system, which is described as an "angry beast." El Nino strength is measured by comparing three-month average water temperatures in a central Pacific region to normal levels.

The current El Nino is already 2.7 degrees Celsius (4.9 degrees Fahrenheit) warmer than normal and expected to intensify further within two to four months. Scientists have long suspected that as the world warms, El Ninos would become stronger due to increased ocean temperature differences. However, historical data only spans about 75 years, making it difficult to establish a clear trend.

To address this, Cole's team analyzed coral fossils from the Galapagos Islands to reconstruct past El Nino patterns over the past 900 years. The results showed a clear increase in El Nino strength, suggesting that the future will see even more severe El Nino events, exacerbating global weather and climate extremes.