ECOWAS At Freetown: A Regional Body Lacking An Integrated Analytical Picture Of A Complex Problem (2)

The Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) met in Freetown, Sierra Leone, to negotiate a General Framework Agreement aimed at addressing complex regional issues. However, the negotiation lacks an integrated analytical approach to tackle these challenges effectively.

Dr. Lansana Kouyaté, the Chief Negotiator, has conducted extensive diplomatic work, with 18 thematic areas under discussion. A risk register has been developed, identifying 48 potential risks that could hinder the negotiation process or lead to bilateral agreements among member states. The Council has extended its mandate until December 2026, but the risk register only addresses diplomatic risks and fails to consider the critically important relationship between the diplomatic timeline and the security timeline.

The negotiation aims to conclude a Comprehensive Cooperation Agreement within two years, but a significant intelligence assessment is crucial to determine if the armed groups operating in Burkina Faso, Mali, and Niger are on a timeline that aligns with the diplomatic schedule. Without such an assessment, the negotiation is proceeding under the assumption that the problem is primarily diplomatic, while in reality, it is partially diplomatic and substantially military-political, necessitating intelligence analysis to understand the situation fully.

The negotiation process is treating the immobilization of 31,700 tonnes of ECOWAS food reserves as a logistics problem, rather than acknowledging it as a territorial control indicator. The immobilization of these reserves suggests the extent to which governance in the AES states has deteriorated below the threshold required for regional integration infrastructure to function.

This fact should inform the negotiation structure, timelines, and contingency planning, but none of this analytical work is present in the Freetown report.