Deal or no deal: Farage faces polling hit from Restore Britain either way

Nigel Farage faces a potential polling hit due to a pact between his Reform UK party and a far-right splinter group led by Rupert Lowe called Restore Britain. The new polling indicates that such a deal would deter some of the former Conservative voters Reform UK is trying to attract. Former Conservative voters who are now considering voting Reform would drop from 45% to 39% if Reform entered a pact with Restore.

Furthermore, 93% of Reform voters who backed Farage at the last general election would still support him without a Restore pact, but that number falls to 83% if they believe a pact with Lowe is likely. Overall, the poll suggests that a Restore pact would reduce those willing to consider voting Reform from 32% to 30%. While Restore is currently polling around 4%, the survey found that up to 20% of Brits would "consider" voting for Restore, including 53% of non-voters in the 2024 election.

The first-past-the-post system in British elections means that a fracture in the political spectrum could give more united parties the keys to Downing Street. However, there are risks for Farage if he doesn't enter a pact with Restore, as Restore has the potential to split the right-wing vote and hand the more united flank of politics the power to form a government.