Brazil Presidential Poll: Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro in Statistical Tie
A PoderData/Aya poll puts Lula at 38% and Flávio Bolsonaro at 35% in Brazil’s first round, with a 45%-44% runoff: a statistical tie five weeks out. The post Brazil Presidential Poll: Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro in Statistical Tie appeared first on The Rio Times .
The 2026 Brazilian presidential race is currently a statistical tie, according to a PoderData/Aya poll released on Thursday 27 August. President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva and Senator Flávio Bolsonaro are tied at 38% and 35% respectively in the first round, with a potential runoff vote showing Lula ahead at 45% and Bolsonaro at 44%.
The PoderData/Aya survey, which interviewed 2,400 voters by telephone between 23-26 August, has a margin of error of two percentage points either way. This statistical tie is backed up by other recent polls, such as the Real Time Big Data institute, which found a 49% against Lula and 48% in favour, and the BTG Pactual/Nexus survey, which also showed a statistical tie.
In Espírito Santo, Flávio Bolsonaro leads Lula by just 1% in the first round and wins the runoff 48% to 42%. In Minas Gerais, Lula leads the first round at 39% and the runoff is statistically tied at 46% to 44%. Both men are rejected by 49% of voters in the PoderData/Aya survey, meaning nearly half of Brazilians say they would never vote for either man.
Lula's government has a disapproval rating of 50% and an approval rating of 42%. The next round of surveys will determine if Lula's decline has stopped, as the election is scheduled for Sunday 4 October 2026, with a runoff on 25 October 2026 if needed.
Written by urgent.news from The Rio Times's reporting — not their text. Machine-written — may contain errors; check the original before relying on it.
