With no friends left to burn, Trump is running out of diplomatic ammunition | Rafael Behr

With Iran war proving a strategic disaster, President Trump's diplomatic options are running thin. The US remains the richest and most heavily armed nation on Earth, but Trump's incompetence and contempt for law has made him seem terribly outmatched and impotent. The Iran conflict has marked a turning point for the current administration, causing grievous damage to national prestige.

Originally convinced a swift triumph in the Middle East was possible, Trump's hubris after a brazen military operation to kidnap Venezuelan leader Nicolás Maduro has since turned cold. The Tehran regime, bolstered by resilience under US and Israeli bombardment, now demands financial concessions for peace, including reparations and rights to toll the Strait of Hormuz.

Despite the war's ongoing strife, sanctions threaten to push Iran's fragile economy over the edge. However, repressive measures limit the capacity for political change among ordinary Iranians. On the US front, economic pain from the war and confusion over its purpose allows for expression in midterm elections. If sanctions fail, diplomatic climbdown becomes the only option left.

In this asymmetry of cost and capability, Iran poses a formidable challenge. With few Patriot interceptors, a depleted arsenal due to Operation Epic Fury, Iran can effectively deter ships, disrupt neighboring states with drones, and cause significant global repercussions. This depletion affects Ukraine heavily where US interceptors are crucial for shielding civilians from Russian missiles.

Trump's changing attitude towards Ukraine reflects shifting priorities and grudging respect for Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy's resilience.

However, these diplomatic maneuvers are fraught with complications. Trump's foreign policy successes hinge on credulous admiration for Vladimir Putin and misguided territorial demands in Greenland. As a result, European allies feel burned by his lack of reliable protection and unfair treatment. Similarly, Gulf states feel unrewarded for their frontline role in the war.

Trump's abrupt cancellation of a military exercise with South Korea, despite being attributed to force stretching, is interpreted as appeasement towards North Korea and a lack of respect for Canada.

These actions further alienate Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney, who moved away from trade talks and retaliated with punitive tariffs. This trade war is likely to hurt the smaller Canadian economy more than the US. Yet, Trump views concessions as signals for further demands and insists on valid results at the upcoming midterm elections, dismissing any unwelcome outcomes. Despite facing political turmoil, Trump remains determined to deny the validity of election results and continue his ruthless approach to diplomacy.