With no friends left to burn, Trump is running out of diplomatic ammunition | Rafael Behr

The United States' military campaign in Iran has proven to be a strategic failure for the nation led by President Donald Trump. Despite possessing the world's wealthiest and most heavily armed military, the administration has struggled to achieve its objectives. The war against Iran has resulted in a turning point for the administration and a significant blow to national prestige.

Initially, Trump believed a swift victory in the Middle East was attainable after a daring military operation to kidnap Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro. However, Iran has shown resilience, and the hardliners now demand financial concessions and the right to toll the Strait of Hormuz in exchange for peace. Trump threatens further sanctions, including a "D-day" campaign, in an effort to break Iran's fragile economy.

Yet, while ordinary Iranians suffer, US consumers face inflationary consequences and express their discontent during midterm elections.

Iran's economy is not collapsing as Trump suggests, but repression limits their ability to translate discontent into political change. US consumers, meanwhile, are more concerned with their wallets and upcoming elections. Iran can still pose a threat through the use of mines and drones, which are significantly less costly than the US's advanced Patriot interceptors. The depletion of these interceptors has global implications, particularly for Ukraine, where they are vital in defending against Russian missiles.

Trump's approach to Ukraine has shifted from an assumption of Russian victory to grudging respect for Ukraine's President, Volodymyr Zelenskyy. However, this shift is not stable, as it depends on European allies financing the defense of Ukraine. If Trump had instead used diplomacy to achieve this, it would have been a diplomatic success. However, his admiration for Putin and demands for territory in Greenland have damaged European trust in American reliability.

The war has strained relationships with US allies, particularly Gulf states that found themselves on the frontlines of the conflict. These states feel unrewarded for their service to US interests and have been treated poorly by Trump. Recent cuts to a joint military exercise with South Korea, a loyal ally, have further isolated the US.

Trump's treatment of Canada, a benign democracy, has also soured relations. The Canadian Prime Minister pulled out of trade talks, leading to punitive tariffs from Trump, which may hurt Canadian commerce but is a necessary price to pay for not capitulating to the US president's demands.