Tom Tiffany’s Chances of Beating David Crowley to Flip Wisconsin—Polls

A recent Marquette Law School poll revealed that Milwaukee County Executive David Crowley and Republican Representative Tom Tiffany are in a tight race for Wisconsin's governor seat in the 2026 midterms. Both parties consider the contest highly competitive, as voters in the deeply divided state have shown a propensity to switch between parties in recent elections.

Wisconsin narrowly backed President Donald Trump in the 2024 election by only a narrow margin. Despite this, Democrats remain optimistic about Crowley's prospects, believing that he will gain from any headwinds that could aid their party. President Trump's popularity has plummeted to record lows in numerous polls, and this trend could negatively impact Republicans in closely contested states.

However, Republicans still maintain that the race remains competitive, particularly following an emotionally charged Democratic primary where Crowley narrowly defeated Francesca Hong. The latest poll gave Crowley a slight edge among likely voters, with 49 percent supporting him compared to 44 percent backing Tiffany. An additional 7 percent of respondents were still undecided.

Among registered voters, the race is evenly split, with each candidate receiving 44 percent support, and 12 percent remaining undecided. The poll also indicated that Republicans are more optimistic about voting. Fifty-five percent of Republican respondents expressed "very enthusiastic" feelings about voting for their chosen nominee in November, whereas 49 percent of Democrats felt the same way.

The poll sampled 891 registered voters in Wisconsin between August 12 and 20, 2026, and had a margin of error of ±4 percentage points. Additionally, the poll found that Trump's overall popularity within the electorate has reached a new low of -19 points, as 59 percent of registered voters disapproved of him, while 40 percent approved.

Unfavorable views of both parties were also recorded: 60 percent of respondents held unfavorable views of the Democratic Party, while 55 percent disapproved of the Republican Party. Kathleen Dolan, a professor of political science at the University of Wisconsin-Milwaukee, commented on the race, stating that it is "pretty competitive."

She added that Crowley's lead of five percentage points in the MU poll seems substantial, but it is within the margin of error for the poll (4 percentage points), meaning the outcome may be uncertain. Dolan noted that the race could tighten over time, and she anticipates that the election could be close in November. Both parties have their advantages and disadvantages.

Democrats benefit from Trump's disapproval ratings, while Republicans possess a financial advantage and have been airing attack ads against Crowley since the day after the primary. Other polls have also indicated a closely contested race between Crowley and Tiffany. A Platform Communications poll, which surveyed 500 likely voters from August 12 to 13, 2026, showed Crowley with a 4-point lead (48 percent to 44 percent).

A GBAO poll, which polled 800 likely voters from July 30 to August 3, had Crowley leading by 3 points (47 percent to 44 percent). A survey conducted by RMG Research and the Napolitan News Service gave Crowley a 3-point advantage (46 percent to 43 percent). These various polls have resulted in differing classifications of the race.

The Cook Political Report labeled it a toss-up, while Sabato's Crystal Ball views it as Lean Democratic. After Crowley's primary victory over Hong, the forecaster shifted the race to favor Democrats. Crowley's victory in the primary makes the Democrats slight favorites to launch their campaign in November. Crowley will face Rep. Tom Tiffany (R, WI-7), who had a relatively unopposed primary.

Tiffany is not a moderate; he is a member of the House Freedom Caucus and has backed President Trump's baseless claims about the 2020 presidential election. He has even voted against certifying the 2020 presidential results in Arizona and Pennsylvania. Crowley leads in prediction markets, with a 79 percent chance of winning on Kalshi and an 81 percent chance on Polymarket as of Wednesday afternoon.

Prediction markets aggregate real-money wagers into probability estimates, which can provide insights into trader sentiment. However, they do not always accurately predict future outcomes. The issue of AI data centers has emerged as a central topic for this year's midterms, transcending traditional partisan lines. In Wisconsin, both Crowley and Tiffany are attempting to portray their opponent as the pro-data center candidate.

The new poll found strong support for a temporary moratorium on data centers among likely voters, with 65 percent in favor and 35 percent opposed. Dolan mentioned that both candidates are "more 'moderate' on data centers than is general public opinion."