The Tariff Cost: analysis of the costs to Americans from new tariffs on Canada

The tariff cost on American goods from Canada has been analyzed, shedding light on the financial impact on American consumers. Customs logs track duties on every shipment that crosses the border, and these logs provide the data used in the analysis. The model used in this analysis covers tariffs on all U.S. imports since 2025, including Canada, China, Mexico, and the European Union.

However, it does not account for the amount of duty businesses add to the shelf price versus absorbing it, which is sourced in an assumption provided in the analysis.

The analysis focuses on the effect of tariffs on U.S. exports that Canada taxes, primarily steel and aluminum. As of September, the list of taxed items includes a 25% tariff, while a 50% tariff is added in September, potentially impacting hundreds of American steel and aluminum industries. Canada has not implemented such high tariffs, and the analysis does not predict their future implementation. However, it highlights that tariffs are only one factor among many that influence the cost of American products.

The analysis allows users to filter or search for specific energy sources and see how much of the United States' energy comes from Canada. The data presented is based on actual measurements, with the exception of the section on what tariffs cost your household. This section relies on an assumption that is clearly stated, and no forecasts or projections are made.

It is important to note that there are two separate tariffs in this situation: Canada's counter-tariffs paid by Canadian importers, reflected in Canadian prices, and the American tariffs paid by American importers at the border. These two taxes have distinct payers and should not be added together. The analysis also clarifies that counting tariff lines indicates the breadth of the list rather than the monetary value.

The dollar figures are derived from trade data rather than the list itself, as a single line can encompass billions or virtually no trade. The full list of tariffs, generated by the model's code, is presented below the analysis for further examination.