The Commodities Feed: Oil falls as Strait of Hormuz talks advance

Oil prices have slipped, settling 3.89% lower than the previous day and falling below the $90 mark. This decline in prices is attributed to recent positive developments in talks between Iran, Oman and the Persian Gulf. Pakistani officials claim to have made substantial progress in ending the ongoing war. However, even if an agreement is reached between these parties, it will not guarantee a return to normal oil flow through the Strait of Hormuz.

Normalizing oil flows through this critical chokepoint necessitates the lifting of the US blockade on Iranian ports and easing sanctions on Iran. Monitoring oil flows in the Strait of Hormuz has become a vital risk indicator for traders in recent years. Tankers are increasingly utilizing the Strait with transponders turned off, making it challenging to maintain visibility amid a surge in shuttle movements transporting crude out of the Persian Gulf.

While the US estimates around 8-9 million barrels per day (b/d) flow through the Strait, recent ship-tracking data suggests a much lower figure, ranging from 2m to 6m b/d. Additionally, US crude oil inventories increased by 4.2 million barrels over the past week, while gasoline and distillate inventories contracted by 3.2 million and 500,000 barrels, respectively.

Russia is contemplating extending its diesel export ban until October 1st due to ongoing attacks on its refinery infrastructure. This move has exacerbated the fuel market's tightness, as Russia is the second-largest diesel exporter. Furthermore, Russia is contemplating suspending export duties on wheat, barley, and corn until the end of 2026, a decision arising from persistent disruptions in shipments from the Azov Sea and Black Sea, which account for over 70% of exports.