The $40 trillion national debt and the bond market’s revolt: top Wall Street strategists explain how we got into this mess
David Kelly and Torsten Slok reached the same conclusion from opposite directions: with DC unwilling to touch the deficit, the bond market is the bad cop.
The U.S. national debt surpassed $40 trillion for the first time this month, prompting Wall Street economists to predict that bond markets will take control of the situation, regardless of the Treasury Department's preferences. David Kelly, J.P. Morgan Asset Management's chief global strategist, and Apollo chief economist Torsten Slok both argued that higher-than-expected rates will persist due to four factors: fiscal decisions, Fed rate hikes, AI hyperscaler bond issuance, and the long-term Treasury yield acting as the "only fiscal disciplinarian" left.
Druckenmiller, who mentored Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent three decades ago, wrote in the Wall Street Journal that the long-term Treasury yield, which reached a 19-year high, should be seen as a fiscal discipline rather than a crisis.
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