미 재무부 ‘비상금 통장’ 활용 적중…국채 금리 진정세로

The US Treasury's emergency fund, known as the 'backstop account,' is being actively utilized to stabilize long-term Treasury yields, which has begun to show positive effects. The US Department of the Treasury's complementary measures appear to be working effectively. This shift in perspective comes after concerns that the Treasury would only use the account for its basic operations.

US Treasury yields have now fallen to a level lower than expected, which is drawing attention in the domestic market. A recent Bloomberg report highlighted that the spread between 30-year US Treasury yields and the swap rate, which represents the expected level of interest rates, has been the smallest since February. The swap rate is determined by the price of derivatives that swap fixed and floating interest rates, indicating investors' expectations for the fair rate of return.

After the large-scale expansion of the Treasury bond program was announced on the 19th, the 30-year Treasury yield had been rising from 5.27% on the 19th to 5.17% on the 25th. The Bloomberg report stated that "the effect of the expanded backstop account is now evident in key market indicators." The main reason for this change, according to analysts, is the Treasury's use of the General Account (TGA) card to draw from the emergency fund.

The TGA is a type of account where the government keeps funds received from taxes or from issuing bonds. Recently, its balance has been around $950 billion. Originally, this money was used for routine government spending, but recently, it has been directed towards the backstop account. This move has helped alleviate concerns about the large amount of available emergency fund.

In the long term, there is growing optimism about the growth of stable coins, which are required to be backed by specific assets such as government bonds. As the stable coin market expands, the demand for short-term government bonds is also expected to increase. Considering this development, expanding short-term government bond issuance along with the backstop account could have significant implications.

However, there is no widespread concern, as the US government is projected to reach its debt limit again next year, and without congressional approval to raise the limit, the government may be forced to manage with the funds in the general account.