유시민의 ‘집권 연합’ [유레카]

South Korea's political landscape has become increasingly fragmented, making it difficult for any single region, class, or ideological group to secure the support needed to form a government. Consequently, political parties aiming for a majority must construct a "majority alliance." A prime example of a successful majority alliance is the "New Deal Alliance" established by Franklin D. Roosevelt during the Great Depression.

After the Great Depression, President Franklin D. Roosevelt crafted a stable majority alliance by combining traditional support from the South, Catholics, northern laborers, immigrants, and vulnerable urban populations. This resulted in 20 years of Democratic Party rule.

South Korea's Democratic Party followed a similar path after the 1987 democratic transition. Kim Dae-jung's Democratic Party, supported by overwhelming support from the South and backing from the opposition, held the status of the nation's first-party for two decades, even facing challenges such as the Jindo Party (DJP) and economic crisis.

However, the limitations of the "structural minority" led to government instability, making it difficult to win re-election. Kim's strategy was to appeal to the "moderate, middle-class urban residents" of the South, which helped him win a second term in 2002. Despite numerous conflicts, internal divisions, and readmissions, the "South-Liberal Alliance" remains a key pillar of the Democratic Party.

However, this alliance cannot encompass more than 50% of the electorate. Following the impeachment of Park Geun-hye in 2017, Moon Jae-in's campaign received 41% of the vote, while his successor, Yoon Suk-yeol, achieved a 49% vote share after facing the 12·3 coup and Yoo Jeok-seol's impeachment. Thus, as long as the competition continues, "successive governance" is the most achievable goal.

The term "reconstruction" used by writer Yu Si-min in a YouTube video references the "reconstruction theory," where a leader who is merely a caretaker abandons the existing home to build a new one, leaving the displaced tenants to fend for themselves. While Moon Jae-in's "pragmatic and expansionist" approach has alienated some of his supporters, the need for "reconstruction" is evident.

At the recent Democratic Party central committee meeting, 56% of members voted in favor of an "expanded governance alliance" over the unstable "majority alliance." Yu Si-min went further, claiming that this decision has resulted in "half the Democratic Party's members being lost." Opinions among party members vary.