Storm Dolly Could Form Within Days as Low Crosses the Atlantic
An Atlantic disturbance could first become a tropical depression then strengthen into Tropical Storm Dolly.
A tropical disturbance in the Atlantic Ocean is poised to potentially become Tropical Storm Dolly within several days, although its exact formation and trajectory remain uncertain. The National Hurricane Center (NHC) reported on Wednesday morning that the area of low pressure, designated AL96, is situated a few hundred miles southwest of Cabo Verde.
Disorganized showers and thunderstorms accompany the system, which has a 60% chance of developing within the next 48 hours and 7 days, down from a 70% probability in the previous update. The NHC stated that environmental conditions would be favorable for a tropical depression to form as the disturbance traverses the eastern and central tropical Atlantic west to west-northwest.
However, conditions are anticipated to deteriorate by the weekend, potentially halting its development opportunity.
The Weather Channel highlighted two possible scenarios for the disturbance. It could confront dry air and wind shear associated with El Niño while heading west-northwest, approaching the Lesser Antilles around Sunday with heightened showers. Alternatively, if the system survives these challenges and forms, it could turn northward over the Atlantic next week.
AccuWeather's lead hurricane expert, Alex DaSilva, noted that most waves originating from Africa this year have only been able to maintain brief periods of intense showers and thunderstorms. Continuous thunderstorms over extended periods are crucial for tropical storm formation.
DaSilva warned that the system is expected to near the northern Lesser Antilles late this weekend or early next week, advising residents to closely monitor its progress. If the tropical wave strengthens rapidly, it is likely to turn north and move out to sea. Conversely, if the wave remains weaker, it could remain closer to the Lesser Antilles and eventually reach the Bahamas later next week.
He further explained that any potential impacts on the U.S. would not occur until the end of next week, as the wave must navigate past dry air and wind shear in the Main Development Region to become conducive to development and strengthening.
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