‘Quiet’ Hormuz crude flow, lack of products have split oil market: TotalEnergies CEO

TotalEnergies CEO Patrick Pouyanne spoke at the ONS oil conference in Stavanger, Norway, on Aug. 24, detailing the peculiar market conditions caused by the US-Iran war's impact on the Strait of Hormuz. While crude oil is moving through the strait quietly, at a premium of about $10 per barrel, products are not moving as easily, leading to a highly unusual market scenario with bearish crude and bullish fuel.

TotalEnergies is likely the largest trader of liquids from Iraq and Qatar, whose exports are affected by the Strait's disruption. The CEO explained that moving a VLCC through the Hormuz and back costs around $20 million, which is equivalent to $10 per barrel, and that no fees are being paid to Iran. However, the refined products side is experiencing an entirely different dynamic, with supply drops of 3 million barrels per day from Hormuz and up to 3 million b/d from Russian refinery strikes.

Pouyanne attributed this to the high cost of moving refined products, which is too high due to smaller Suezmax ships, and the effectiveness of attacks on Russian refineries by Ukraine. The CEO also mentioned that refined product supply drops have led to record-high diesel crack margins and an expectation that gasoline prices will stay above $6 per gallon.

Looking ahead, TotalEnergies plans to increase investments in alternative evacuation routes for Middle Eastern crude projects, such as the new pipeline connecting Baghdad and Syria and the UAE's Fujairah pipeline expansion project. Despite the war's impact, Pouyanne emphasized that TotalEnergies remains committed to the Middle East, viewing it as the best place for an oil company and the cheapest one.