Physics-based simulations could improve earthquake-damage predictions, why aren’t they being used?
Discussion and debate at the US National Conference on Earthquake Engineering The post Physics-based simulations could improve earthquake-damage predictions, why aren’t they being used? appeared first on Physics World .
Earthquake ground-motion predictions are currently based on statistical models constructed from historical records. However, these models can be unreliable due to sparse data in certain locations and the absence of information on high-magnitude events. To address this issue, scientists are exploring the use of physics-based simulations, which can fill in the gaps in historical datasets and enhance conventional ground motion models.
Despite progress in this field, physics-based simulations have not yet been widely adopted in engineering applications or building code development. The main obstacle is trust in the simulations' ability to accurately represent complex fault geometry, rupture mechanisms, and velocity structures. To gain researchers' and practitioners' confidence, validation protocols and open repositories of reproducible workflows are essential.
During the US National Conference on Earthquake Engineering, various methods for developing, validating, and applying physics-based simulations were discussed. One participant presented research on using simulated ground motions to uncover damage patterns across a building portfolio that conventional models cannot capture, highlighting the potential for different risk assessments based on the models used.
This discrepancy in risk assessments between physics-based simulations and conventional models could pose challenges for insurance companies and future infrastructure developments in earthquake-prone regions.
Written by urgent.news from Physics World's reporting — not their text. Machine-written — may contain errors; check the original before relying on it.
