Oddone Sees Uruguay Fiscal Outlook Improving, 2.1% Growth in 2027

Uruguay's Economy and Finance Minister Gabriel Oddone sees a more positive fiscal outlook for Uruguay in 2027, projecting a GDP growth rate of 2.1%, following an earlier revision that reduced the growth forecast from 2.2% in 2026. This optimistic projection hinges on a few key factors, which Oddone emphasized during a press conference in Montevideo.

Oddone noted that the government's improved fiscal outlook relies on implementing new revenue instruments incorporated in the national budget, such as the global minimum tax and a levy on capital gains. These measures aim to broaden the tax base and increase government revenue. Additionally, the government is reallocating funds to support four social priorities, including childhood, security, homelessness, and employment.

These reallocations are estimated to add approximately US$31 million to the annual budget, amounting to around 3.2 billion pesos.

The improvement in Uruguay's fiscal outlook is contingent upon a favorable international economic environment. Oddone stressed that the government's projections align closely with those of private analysts and international markets. The government's recent success in placing US$1.6 billion in bonds on international markets in July 2026 is seen as a sign of investor confidence in Uruguay's fiscal health and stability.

Despite the optimistic outlook, Oddone cautioned that the actual outcomes will depend heavily on how the global economy evolves. Uruguay's small open economy is closely tied to global dynamics, such as commodity prices, demand from Argentina and Brazil, and international financial conditions. The recent revision in Uruguay's growth forecast underscores how quickly external factors can impact the nation's economic trajectory.

In summary, Uruguay's improved fiscal outlook for 2027 rests on a combination of new revenue measures, reallocation of funds to social priorities, and market confidence bolstered by favorable bond placements. However, the government remains cautious, emphasizing that external economic conditions will play a critical role in determining the actual growth trajectory.