Nvidia, Rates to Test Korean Stocks

South Korean stocks will face multiple significant market events this week, including Nvidia's earnings report, the Bank of Korea's monetary policy decision, and the Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium. Investors are monitoring the potential impact of these events on uncertainty surrounding long-term treasury yields and the long-term sustainability of AI investments.

Nvidia is expected to disclose its financial results for fiscal year 2027's second quarter on August 26 (U.S. time) and the Bank of Korea's Monetary Policy Board meeting on August 27 (Korea time). The Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium will take place from August 27 to 29 (U.S. time).

Nvidia's performance is anticipated to affect sentiment within Korean semiconductor stocks and the overall market. Analysts anticipate revenue of approximately $92 billion and adjusted earnings per share of around $2.08 from Nvidia, with third-quarter revenue expectations rising to about $103 billion. However, merely surpassing estimates may not be sufficient to propel Korean chip stocks further.

Investors are now concentrating on Nvidia's next-generation Vera Rubin platform and its potential to convert robust AI demand into tangible orders for high-bandwidth memory (HBM4).

Nvidia needs to deliver not only earnings above elevated expectations but also HBM4 yields, supply contracts, and projected volumes for 2027 to drive Korean semiconductor stocks higher. Analyst Kim Jae-seung from Hyundai Motor Securities stated, "Nvidia needs to demonstrate not only earnings above elevated expectations but also HBM4 yields, supply contracts and 2027 volumes for Korean semiconductor stocks to move higher."

The Bank of Korea's rate decision will also serve as a crucial test for Korean stocks. Investors will consider factors such as inflation, growth, household debt, and the won when assessing the outlook for monetary policy. While additional rate hikes are more probable than before, recent declines in the dollar-won exchange rate and easing consumer-price growth may provide room for the central bank to ease the pace of tightening.

Global markets are also closely watching the Jackson Hole symposium. Investors will scrutinize Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh's speech on August 28 and the U.S. personal consumption expenditures price index for insights into the direction of monetary policy and long-term Treasury yields. The recent surge in U.S. and Japanese long-term bond yields has negatively impacted Korean stocks, while significant bond sales by technology firms have raised concerns about the cost and viability of AI investment.

If inflation signs of easing in the PCE data and concerns over monetary policy ease, Treasury yields could stabilize, and risk appetite could resume its upward trajectory. Analyst Lee Kyung-min from Daishin Securities noted that the KOSPI could experience momentum toward the 7,000 level and potentially reach the 8,000s if Nvidia's earnings meet expectations, PCE inflation aligns with forecasts, and Kevin Warsh delivers a generally conventional message.