Missing the Butterfly and Predicting the Past: Features or Bugs of Accurate AI Weather Models?
AI weather prediction (AIWP) models rival physics-based models, yet the sources of their unexpected forecast accuracy and the degree of their physical fidelity remain unclear. Here, across a hierarchy spanning observation-based reanalysis, a general circulation model, and the multi-scale Lorenz system, we show that AI models can be trained to skillfully predict the past (backcast), though…
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