Hot weather in the UK is now almost as deadly as a cold snap
Cold weather has always killed more people than hot weather in England and Wales – but that's about to change
In recent years, heatwaves in the United Kingdom have become increasingly deadly, almost matching the toll of cold weather deaths, according to new figures released by the UK's Office for National Statistics (ONS). While winters have historically been the most deadly season, the rising number of heat-related deaths is now starting to catch up, the ONS revealed.
In 2025, England and Wales witnessed over 40,000 excess deaths on the hottest days compared to normal temperatures. This is a significant shift from the 37-year period between 1988 and 2025, during which almost 139,000 deaths were attributed to the coldest days. The convergence of heat-related and cold-related deaths indicates that as summer temperatures rise, both types of fatalities are becoming increasingly common.
In 1992, hot weather was linked to 722 deaths, whereas cold weather claimed 3,412 lives. By 2023, hot weather accounted for 2,234 deaths, with cold weather responsible for 3,294 fatalities. The ONS estimated deaths associated with the coldest 2.5% and hottest 2.5% of days between 1988 and 2025, considering factors like air pollution.
The trend is strongly linked to a series of hot summers fueled by a warming climate, with five of the UK's warmest summers on record occurring since 2000, and 2022 marking the first summer to record a 40°C day in the UK. Deaths related to hot weather have been on the rise since 2011, and the ONS data does not include 2026. However, projections suggest that England will record a record number of heat-related deaths this summer due to prolonged high temperatures and successive heatwaves.
In July 2026, the UK's Health Security Agency (UKHSA) reported that heatwaves in May and June 2026 caused 2,877 heat-associated deaths in England, nearly double the entire 2025 total. This figure also surpasses the total number of deaths associated with cold weather in England during the winter of 2024-25, estimated by the UKHSA at 2,544.
Therefore, heat-related deaths in 2026 could potentially outstrip cold-related deaths for the first time on record. Bob Ward from the Grantham Research Institute on Climate Change and the Environment highlighted that summer heat is now "killing almost as many people as winter cold each year in England and Wales." The ONS data also reveals that more than half of UK homes are at risk of overheating during hot weather, a projection to rise to 92% by 2050, as estimated by the UK's Climate Change Committee, further exacerbating public health risks.
Written by urgent.news from New Scientist's reporting — not their text. Machine-written — may contain errors; check the original before relying on it.
