Hormuz shipping traffic sits below 10-day average amid fresh diplomacy hopes

Shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz is at a historic low, with just five commercial tankers passing through on Tuesday, according to preliminary data from Kpler. This marks a significant drop from the 10-day average of 15 vessels. The narrow waterway typically facilitates roughly a fifth of the world’s oil and liquefied natural gas.

The conflict between the U.S. and Iran, which began in late February, has led Tehran to effectively halt activity in the Strait, causing global supply disruptions and upward pressure on oil prices. Despite this, Brent crude prices have recently fallen below the $90-a-barrel level, likely due to a report suggesting a new ceasefire agreement between the U.S. and Iran.

However, this report could not be independently verified. Iran and Oman are reportedly in talks to establish a temporary route through the Strait, but the strait will not reopen completely until the U.S. fulfills its commitments from the expired framework deal. The U.S. does not anticipate renewed full-scale conflict with Iran, as noted by Deutsche Bank analysts.

Meanwhile, the U.S. is reportedly preparing to send diplomats back to the Middle East, and Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has vowed to impose new sanctions on Iran. Interestingly, the U.S. has refrained from imposing secondary sanctions on other countries, including China, the largest buyer of Iranian oil.