Heavy rain to lash north, central India; flash flood risk in several districts

Several regions in Uttar Pradesh, Madhya Pradesh, eastern and northeastern India, and adjoining areas are expected to experience heavy rainfall, with a risk of flash floods. The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has issued warnings of isolated extremely heavy rainfall in parts of southwestern Uttar Pradesh and northwestern Madhya Pradesh.

The weather system is forecast to bring widespread rainfall over eastern Uttar Pradesh on 27 August, and west Madhya Pradesh is expected to receive similar rainfall through 1 September. The IMD has flagged a low to moderate flash flood risk in east Rajasthan, west Uttar Pradesh, and west Madhya Pradesh over the next 24 hours, particularly in Bharatpur, Dholpur, Karauli, Agra, Aligarh, Auraiya, Badaun, Etah, Firozabad, Hamirpur, Jhansi, Kasganj, Mainpuri, Mathura, and Shahjahanpur districts.

Rainfall activity is anticipated to continue across northwest and central India over the coming week, with the IMD forecasting widespread showers in several states. Uttarakhand is expected to receive rainfall from 27 August to 1 September, while Himachal Pradesh, Jammu and Kashmir, Ladakh, Gilgit-Baltistan, and Muzaffarabad may see rainfall from 31 August to 1 September.

Vidarbha is forecast to experience widespread to heavy rainfall on 27 August, followed by another spell on 31 August-1 September. Rainfall activity is expected to be subdued over peninsular India during the next week, though isolated to scattered showers may occur in coastal Andhra Pradesh, Telangana, Karnataka, Rayalaseema, Tamil Nadu, Puducherry, and central and eastern India through 1 September.

Odisha, Jharkhand, Gangetic West Bengal, sub-Himalayan West Bengal, and Sikkim are forecast to receive widespread rainfall through 1 September, while Bihar is expected to see rainfall on 27 August and again on 29 August. Northeast India, including Arunachal Pradesh, Assam, Meghalaya, Nagaland, Manipur, Mizoram, and Tripura, is also expected to remain wet, with widespread rainfall forecast through 1 September.

The past 24 hours have seen extremely heavy rainfall of 21 cm or more in west Uttar Pradesh, very heavy rainfall of 12-20 cm in east Uttar Pradesh, east Madhya Pradesh, Arunachal Pradesh, and coastal Karnataka, and heavy rainfall of 7-11 cm in Haryana, Himachal Pradesh, east Rajasthan, Bihar, west Madhya Pradesh, West Bengal, and Kerala.

Cumulative rainfall between 1 June and 25 August has been 577.8 mm, a 13% deficit compared to the normal of 664.7 mm.