Fears grow for fourth rate hike after higher than expected July inflation rate

Inflation data from July has reignited concerns about a potential fourth rate hike this year by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA). The Australian Bureau of Statistics revealed that the Consumer Prices Index (CPI) rose by 3.5% in July, falling short of the anticipated 3.3% increase predicted by economists. While inflation eased compared to June's 3.8%, it still surpassed the RBA's 2.5% target. The preferred underlying inflation measure remained at 3.6%, unchanged from previous months.

Brendan Rynne, KPMG's chief economist, warned that the data supports the notion that the RBA may struggle to bring inflation under control without further policy action. He believed the Reserve Bank may have missed an opportunity at their last meeting to preemptively raise rates. The disappointing figures emerged just a day after RBA meeting minutes revealed board members were skeptical about hitting their 2.5% inflation target by year-end. Some members thought another rate hike during the year was "quite possible."

The decision to keep the cash rate at 4.35% was unanimous during the recent meeting, but the potential for additional hikes looms large. Many economists, who had previously ruled out further increases, now consider a November hike more likely, with NAB analysts re-evaluating their stance. Deutsche Bank's chief economist, Phil O'Donaghoe, even predicted the RBA might act as early as September, emphasizing the "intolerably high" underlying price growth.

Fuel excise relief ended in July, contributing to a 7.5% rise in petrol prices, while housing costs and restaurant prices also saw significant increases. My Bui, an economist at AMP, maintained her prediction of an RBA rate hike in November but noted that a September hike is also feasible. The rise in construction costs, driven by higher labor and material expenses, was a key factor behind the CPI increase.