Fact File: U.S. could inflict pain on Canada through energy trade

On Monday, U.S. President Donald Trump posted an implied threat on his Truth Social platform regarding energy products flowing into Canada from the southern border. While Canada is a larger overall supplier to the U.S. than the other way around, certain regions in Canada could be significantly impacted if the U.S. were to initiate a disruption. Ontario Premier Doug Ford had recently criticized Trump after a breakdown in trade talks.

The Canada Energy Regulator's overview from May detailed Canada-U.S. energy trade flows in 2023. Canada exported a total of $157.5 billion worth of crude oil, natural gas, refined products, and natural gas liquids to the U.S., while importing just $34.4 billion. Additionally, Canada exported $3.3 billion in electricity to the U.S. and imported $1.4 billion.

Some regions in Canada, particularly Ontario, would be particularly vulnerable to such a disruption. Enbridge Inc., a Calgary-based pipeline giant, operates the backbone of Canada's cross-country transport infrastructure, with pipelines running from Edmonton, through the U.S., and re-entering Canada in Sarnia, Ontario. Major refineries in Sarnia, operated by Suncor Energy, Imperial Oil, and Shell Canada, are vital suppliers of gasoline, jet fuel, and diesel in Ontario.

The existing pipeline and trade agreements between Canada and the U.S. make it illegal for the Trump administration to target Enbridge's system. However, Richard Masson, an energy consultant, believes the U.S. may not be paying much attention to the law. Instead of building a new pipeline as suggested by Ford and Alberta's counterpart, Masson suggested building more rail unloading infrastructure in Ontario to move crude in the event of a pipeline disruption.