Expert Comment: More extreme weather is coming—AI may help us to better prepare for it
As of August 2026, the world is bracing for what forecasters describe as one of the strongest El Niño events on record. The U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's (NOAA) Climate Prediction Center has put the chance of a very strong event this fall and winter above 90%, with a 69% likelihood that it will exceed every El Niño since 1950.
The article from Phys.org discusses the impending threat of extreme weather events, particularly in the context of the strongest El Niño event on record, as forecasted by the U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). The article highlights the potential devastation caused by extreme weather events in various regions, such as Kenya's 1997–98 El Niño and the catastrophic flooding in Derna, Libya, brought about by Storm Daniel.
It emphasizes the need for improved forecasting systems to anticipate such extreme weather events before they occur. The article then introduces artificial intelligence (AI) as a potential solution, noting its ability to produce faster, cheaper, and more locally tailored weather forecasts without requiring significant infrastructure.
However, the article also warns of the "extrapolation problem" associated with AI models, which refers to their limited ability to predict unprecedented events due to their reliance on historical data patterns.
Brief written by urgent.news from Phys.org's own syndicated text. Machine-written — may contain errors; check the original before relying on it.
