Economy Ministry considers downgrading 2026 GDP growth forecast due to shelling, port blockade
The Ministry of Economy and Environment will revise downward its baseline forecast for Ukraine's gross domestic product (GDP) growth in 2026, which previously stood at 1-3%, due to the consequences of Russian shelling and restrictions on export potential.
Ukraine's Ministry of Economy and Environment is set to lower its projected GDP growth for 2026 due to the effects of Russian shelling and port blockades. The initial forecast of 1-3% has been revised downwards, with the impact of shelling potentially reducing growth by up to 0.5%. Energy infrastructure damage led to a 0.6% GDP decline in Q1 2026, followed by a modest growth in the first half of the year.
However, further growth is hindered by destroyed energy and logistics infrastructure and port blockages. Minister Oleksandr Kravchenko emphasized the need to prepare for a difficult winter and worst-case scenarios. The government aims to support businesses in crisis situations, expand preferential lending programs, and increase war risk insurance scope.
Non-governmental analysts estimate the potential negative impact of the port blockade on GDP to be between -0.6% and -0.9%. The National Bank of Ukraine revised its forecast for real GDP growth in 2026 to 1.8%, down from 1.3% in April. The IMF also lowered its forecast for Ukraine's real GDP growth in 2026 to 1.0-1.6% from 1.8-2.5%, while the Cabinet of Ministers reduced its forecast to 1.6%.
Under an optimistic scenario, GDP growth could reach 4.5%, while in a less optimistic scenario, it could be 1.3%.
Written by urgent.news from Interfax-Ukraine's reporting — not their text. Machine-written — may contain errors; check the original before relying on it.
