Democrats Just Might Win the Senate
Strategists in both parties have long thought that everything would need to go right for Democrats to take over Congress this fall. Their map, though, is becoming more forgiving.
Democrats are in a strong position to potentially gain control of the Senate, according to political strategists. The party currently holds 47 seats, meaning they need to win four Republican seats and retain their current ones, including Michigan and Georgia, both of which voted for President Donald Trump in 2024. However, Trump's approval rating is currently below 40 percent, a historically risky level. A recent Reuters/Ipsos poll shows his approval nearing 30 percent.
Historically, when a Republican president faced an unpopular war, high gas prices, and an approval rating below 40 percent—similar to George W. Bush in 2006—Democrats were able to pick up six seats and gain control of the Senate. As a result, Democratic strategists are now considering several additional battleground states beyond the initial four-state path of Alaska, North Carolina, Ohio, and Maine that were envisioned by Senate Democratic leader Chuck Schumer.
In Alaska, Democratic candidate Mary Peltola is leading incumbent Dan S. Sullivan by over 5 percentage points in the state's nonpartisan primary. This suggests that Democratic voters are highly engaged in the race. Additionally, a retired teacher named Dan J. Sullivan won a spot on the general-election ballot, which could potentially split the Republican vote if Alaskans mix up the two Sullivans.
In North Carolina, former Democratic governor Roy Cooper is running against Trump-endorsed candidate Michael Whatley, the former Republican National Committee chairman. Cooper has consistently led in the race, sometimes by as much as double digits. A recent poll had Cooper leading by 13 points.
Ohio Democratic strategists see potential in former senator Sherrod Brown to flip a seat in Ohio. Despite the state's typically Republican leanings, Ohio is turning into a battleground with rising costs and discontent over data centers. Brown has spent millions on an ad campaign targeting Republican incumbent Jon Husted, portraying him as the "face of data centers in Ohio." Brown has pulled ahead in August polling in a race rated as a toss-up by the Cook Political Report.
While Democrats are cautiously optimistic about their prospects in Texas, they also see a potential path through Maine. However, their initial nominee, Graham Platner, was accused of rape—a claim he denies—and dropped out. Democrats quickly coalesced behind Troy Jackson, who faces incumbent Republican senator Susan Collins. Some party leaders are concerned about whether liberal voters will back Jackson after the messy primary.
However, Trump's trade policies could potentially benefit Democrats, given the close economic ties between the border states and Canada.
Written by urgent.news from Wired's reporting — not their text. Machine-written — may contain errors; check the original before relying on it.
