Debunking the investment funding question Maybank

According to a report from August 24, Vietnam's investment growth has been modest, growing by only 8-10% between 2011-2025, which equates to 32-35% of GDP. This figure falls significantly short of the government's 40% target for 2030. The report highlights that the private sector contributes the largest portion of Vietnamese investment, accounting for roughly 54%, while manufacturing and transport together make up about 40% of total investment shares.

Under two different GDP growth scenarios - 8.5% (transition) and 10% (ambition) for 2026-2030 - investment rates must increase substantially beyond the 8.2% average observed from 2020-2025. For both growth scenarios, the government has outlined specific investment targets for public, private, and foreign direct investment (FDI) sectors.

The government's chances of meeting these targets appear promising for both public investment and FDI due to the relatively small government debt and FDI compared to GDP when compared to other countries. Maybank mentioned that the public sector is also projected to provide 85% of the funding for national strategic infrastructure projects, which make up about 15-18% of total investment between 2026-2030.

The success of private investment largely depends on the banking system's ability to provide adequate and efficient credit support, according to the report. In terms of forecasts, the ASEAN+3 Macroeconomic Research Office (AMRO) has raised Vietnam's economic growth prediction for 2026 to 7.5%. To meet the 10% GDP growth target for the year, Vietnam's economy would need to expand by approximately 11.9% in the second half of 2026.

However, achieving this target involves more than just boosting growth; it requires maintaining inflation control, ensuring macroeconomic stability, and enhancing the quality of growth. Vietnam's reforms have been gaining international recognition, as evidenced by the government's review of July's performance on August 3.