Cisco Systems Stock Ran On Orders Its Revenue Had Not Caught Up To

Cisco Systems stock surged 68.5% from August 22, 2025 to August 25, 2026, outpacing the S&P 500's 19.7% increase over the same period. The company's AI infrastructure orders, disclosed in three consecutive quarters prior to the stock run, exceeded $2 billion in fiscal 2025, more than double the initial target. Of this, about $1 billion was recognized as revenue, with the remainder yet to be recorded.

In fiscal 2026, AI infrastructure accounted for 6% of revenue, up from less than 2% in the previous year, with total orders reaching $9.3 billion. The company's revenue grew 12% to $63.3 billion, with non-GAAP operating margin up 40 basis points. While other tech companies like Hewlett Packard Enterprise, Dell Technologies, and Arista Networks also saw significant gains, Cisco's stock performance was driven by its AI infrastructure order book, which moved before the stock price.

This order-driven approach has proven successful, but maintaining gains requires a different strategy.