Bernstein forecasts Bitcoin to reclaim $125K by late 2026 ahead of cycle peak

Bernstein predicts Bitcoin will rise to $125,000 by late 2026 before reaching $300,000 in 2029 under its base case and $500,000 in 2029 in the bull case, according to a recent research report. The Wall Street firm expects Bitcoin to recover from its recent decline, reaching its 2025 peak and setting new records in the coming years as it approaches the peak of its historical cycle.

After a 50% drop from its October 2025 high, Bitcoin rebounded by 28% over the past 10 days, suggesting the end of the current bear market. Institutional investors and corporate Bitcoin buyers are playing a more significant role in the market, providing additional support during downturns and resulting in smaller drawdowns compared to previous cycles.

Bernstein's base case forecasts Bitcoin at $150,000 by mid-2027, peaking at $300,000 in 2029, and reaching $500,000 in 2029 in the bull case. The company's longer-term target remains about $1 million by 2033 under both scenarios. The forecast is based on Bitcoin's historical four-year cycles, with each cycle divided into four phases: breakout, hype, drawdown, and accumulation.

Bernstein estimates Bitcoin's potential price during these cycles by comparing it to the marginal cost of producing Bitcoin. The firm's base case predicts a price-to-marginal cost multiple of 1.4 times at Bitcoin's $125,000 peak in 2025, dropping to 1.25 times at $300,000 in 2029 and 1.2 times at $1 million in 2033. Bernstein also anticipates that a Bitcoin recovery will enhance the outlook for Strategy, the world's largest corporate Bitcoin holder, which currently owns 840,447 BTC, equivalent to around 4% of Bitcoin's maximum supply.

Bernstein has maintained its "Outperform" rating for Strategy but lowered its MSTR price target to $350 from $450 due to accelerated equity dilution and the updated Bitcoin cycle outlook.