Your safest market is a crowded trade: Why I moved to Dubai six weeks after the ceasefire
On 8 April 2026, a ceasefire ended a regional conflict that had, for the first time, reached all six Gulf Cooperation Council states. The UAE was among the most affected. For a stretch in early March, Emirates and Etihad were running repatriation flights, and Gulf airspace was operating under precautionary measures. Six weeks after that […] The post Your safest market is a crowded trade: Why I…
Six weeks after a ceasefire ended a regional conflict that had affected all six GCC states, I moved my operating base to Dubai. Property transaction values in Dubai fell 55% between December 2025 and May 2026, with the DIFC seeing a steeper 67% decline. Despite the turmoil, I recognized an opportunity worth seizing. The question I faced was whether I had made a mistake in leaving the safest hub in Asia for a region that had recently experienced conflict.
Instead of focusing on the safety of the market, I examined why everyone else was already there. It was because the market was good, not because it was crowded. The fall in prices was due to capital contracting across the region, with MENA startups raising 18% less in the first half of 2026 compared to the previous year. However, the UAE managed to attract 71% of all the money raised in the region, with the largest funded sector being fintech.
The UAE's foreign direct investment remained strong, with record FDI of AED 177.3 billion in 2025, driving greenfield capital expenditure growth. The stability of the region was evident, as businesses continued to operate despite the conflict. The competition thinned, and the buyers stayed, creating an opportunity for me. The noise left, and the serious founders emerged, making it easier for me to access the market and its opportunities.
Written by urgent.news from e27's reporting — not their text. Machine-written — may contain errors; check the original before relying on it.
