Will the U.S. sanctions against Iran work if they don't include China?

The recent sanctions announced by the U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent against Iran are part of President Trump's strategy to force Tehran to accept defeat in the ongoing war. Bessent declared that the U.S. is ending the Iranian threat, but Iran experts remain skeptical about the impact of these measures. Various U.S. administrations have previously attempted to pressure Iran with sanctions, which the regime has managed to circumvent through financial schemes and smuggling operations.

The new sanctions target 60 entities that assist or trade with Iran, including countries such as the UAE, Singapore, Malaysia, Hong Kong, France, the U.K., and China. However, they only target some private Chinese businesses and do not encompass China's major financial institutions. This key omission has led analysts to doubt whether the sanctions will achieve their intended goal.

UAE, which is the world's biggest importer of Iranian goods, has also cut off trade with Iran, potentially hampering the regime's access to foreign currencies and reserves generated from oil sales to China. However, China remains Iran's lifeline, accounting for nearly 45% of the Iranian government's budget last year through the purchase of Iranian crude oil. Chinese banks have been accused of supporting Iran's economy by lending to small refineries and falsifying the origins of Iranian oil.

The U.S. Treasury has accused China of these illicit activities, but Beijing has strongly opposed unilateral sanctions. Iranian Economy Minister Ali Madanizadeh remains confident that Iran is well-prepared for the sanctions, predicting further defeats for the Trump administration.