Will Iran withdraw from nuclear non-proliferation treaty?

Iranian lawmakers have suggested the country may withdraw from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), amid ongoing tensions over Tehran's nuclear program and its conflict with the United States. MP Ghasem Ravanbakhsh proposed the withdrawal, arguing it would be a "strong response" to increased US economic pressure. However, the idea is not new and has been raised multiple times during periods of tension with Western governments.

The NPT, which Iran signed in 1970, consists of 191 member states and aims to prevent the spread of nuclear weapons, promote peaceful nuclear cooperation, and pursue nuclear disarmament. Any member can withdraw if it believes extraordinary events related to the treaty put its national interests at risk. However, it must provide three months' notice to the other members and the UN Security Council, explaining its reasons.

While legally possible, analysts suggest Tehran's repeated threats may serve more as diplomatic leverage than a genuine intention to withdraw. For instance, Behrooz Bayat, a nuclear expert, believes such a withdrawal could increase political and economic pressure on Iran, potentially escalating the risk of military action. Meanwhile, Shahin Modarres, an international security analyst, argues that remaining formally within the NPT while limiting inspections could provide Tehran with a more useful position than formally withdrawing.

This approach allows Iran to maintain ambiguity about its capabilities and intentions without openly leaving the global non-proliferation system.