What the Opportunity Party's land tax would mean for house prices

An Opportunity Party land tax proposal could potentially slash house prices by at least 10 percent, economists assert. The party suggests a 1.75 percent annual land tax, tapering off to 0.5 percent for rural properties. This revenue would fund a weekly citizen's income of $370 for most adults, with top-up assistance for pensioners and some parents.

Westpac chief economist Kelly Eckhold predicts a 9.5 percent decrease in house prices if a 1 percent land tax is applied to property values, not accounting for current market undervaluation. Investors may view houses and land less favorably, affecting prices. However, the impact varies based on property value; higher-priced homes may be more affected due to larger land components.

Lower-priced houses typically offer better rental yields. Kelvin Davidson, Cotality's chief economist, estimates land taxes could reduce values by 10 to 15 percent, with regional differences affecting the severity. In Auckland, land comprises a significant portion of property value, while other areas have more dwelling value. Opportunity Party leader Qiulae Wong estimates a 10 to 15 percent reduction in property values, offering deferment options for retirees and farmers.

Over 70 percent of retirees own homes without mortgages, potentially deferring the tax for extended periods. This deferred tax could erode up to 40 percent of equity for those deferring for 20 years. Higher-income individuals inheriting properties will benefit from the citizen's income, potentially offsetting the tax impact. Eckhold suggests a capital gains tax could also influence house prices, reducing investors' after-tax returns and potentially leading to lower land and house prices over time.