What Super El Niño Means for US Wildfires
A strengthening El Niño could produce varied affects on wildfire danger across the U.S.
A "Super El Niño" is expected to impact wildfire risk in the United States, potentially leading to a regional divide in danger levels. According to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), there is a greater than 90 percent chance of a "very strong" El Niño during the fall and winter of 2026-27, with a 69 percent probability of an event surpassing previous records.
While El Niño typically brings wetter-than-normal conditions to the southern U.S. and drier, warmer weather to parts of the North, the impacts are not guaranteed. Chad Merrill, an AccuWeather meteorologist, stated that a very strong El Niño usually directs above-average precipitation into California, the Great Basin, the Southwest, southern Plains, and parts of the Southeast and East Coast, which tends to reduce wildfire risk in these areas.
However, Merrill expects the fire season to begin with very high threats in the West before the likelihood of wildfires falls quickly by early October. The geographic pattern may be influenced by the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), which is currently in its cool, or negative, phase. If El Niño becomes the dominant influence, the geographic pattern could be reversed, with a drier Northwest and wetter conditions farther south.
Brief written by urgent.news from Newsweek's own syndicated text. Machine-written — may contain errors; check the original before relying on it.
